Morning Miami Weather Report
Miami, October 16 — Slight Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
Automated weather summary from official sources; factual templates with validated source timestamps. Follow NWS Miami and NHC for current guidance.
Forecast for Miami / Brickell
Friday: 88°F. Slight Chance Rain Showers then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms. Wind 10 mph E. Rain chance: 16%.
A slight chance of rain showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 88. Heat index values as high as 103. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Overnight: A slight chance of rain showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 82. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 2am and 3am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. Heat index values as high as 100. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Hourly forecast — rain chances and timing
| Eastern time | Temperature | Rain chance | Wind | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 · 5:00 AM EDT | 83°F | 15% | 9 mph E | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 6:00 AM EDT | 83°F | 15% | 9 mph E | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 7:00 AM EDT | 83°F | 16% | 9 mph E | Slight Chance Rain Showers |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 8:00 AM EDT | 82°F | 7% | 9 mph E | Sunny |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 9:00 AM EDT | 84°F | 6% | 10 mph E | Mostly Sunny |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 10:00 AM EDT | 85°F | 5% | 10 mph E | Mostly Sunny |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 11:00 AM EDT | 86°F | 7% | 10 mph E | Sunny |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 12:00 PM EDT | 86°F | 6% | 10 mph SE | Sunny |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 1:00 PM EDT | 86°F | 11% | 10 mph SE | Sunny |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 2:00 PM EDT | 86°F | 14% | 10 mph SE | Mostly Sunny |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 3:00 PM EDT | 87°F | 12% | 9 mph SE | Mostly Sunny |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 4:00 PM EDT | 86°F | 12% | 9 mph SE | Mostly Sunny |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 5:00 PM EDT | 86°F | 15% | 8 mph E | Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 6:00 PM EDT | 86°F | 23% | 7 mph E | Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 7:00 PM EDT | 84°F | 25% | 6 mph E | Chance Showers And Thunderstorms |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 8:00 PM EDT | 84°F | 41% | 6 mph E | Chance Showers And Thunderstorms |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 9:00 PM EDT | 83°F | 40% | 5 mph E | Chance Showers And Thunderstorms |
| Oct 16, 2026 · 10:00 PM EDT | 83°F | 36% | 5 mph E | Chance Showers And Thunderstorms |
Observed nearby
Miami International Airport (KMIA), Oct 16, 2026 · 5:20 AM EDT: Clear. Temperature 81°F; wind 3 mph. This airport observation does not measure conditions at your exact location in Brickell.
Alerts and outdoor plans
Miami / Brickell: no active alerts returned by the official query at collection time. This is not a statement that conditions are safe.
Biscayne Bay and the Miami-Dade coast: no active alerts returned by the official query at collection time. This is not a statement that conditions are safe.
Running: Use the temperature, rain and wind forecast above to plan your window. If thunderstorms are forecast or you hear thunder, postpone outdoor activity and seek a substantial building. This briefing does not certify a safe running window.
Paddleboarding — official Biscayne Bay forecast
Today: E winds 5 to 10 kt (12 mph). Light chop.
Tonight: E winds around 5 kt (6 mph). Smooth. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers.
Sat: NE winds around 5 kt (6 mph). Smooth. A chance of showers in the morning. A chance of tstms in the late morning and afternoon. Showers in the afternoon.
Wind speeds in the source use knots (1 knot = 1.151 mph). Check current marine alerts and local conditions before launching; no safe launch window is inferred.
Official coastal Miami-Dade beach and rip-current guidance
FLZ173-162100-
Coastal Miami-Dade-
Including the beaches of Miami
321 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026
.TODAY...
Rip Current Risk*...........Low.
Surf Height.................1 to 2 feet.
Thunderstorm Potential**....Low.
Waterspout Risk**...........None.
UV Index**..................Very High.
Water Temperature...........In the mid 80s.
Weather.....................Mostly sunny. A slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms.
High Temperature............In the upper 80s.
Max Heat Index..............Up to 105.
Winds.......................East winds around 10 mph.
Tides...
Miami Harbor Entrance....Low at 06:27 AM EDT.
High at 01:09 PM EDT.
Sunrise.....................7:20 AM.
Sunset......................6:53 PM.
.SATURDAY...
Rip Current Risk*...........High.
Surf Height.................1 foot or less.
Thunderstorm Potential**....Moderate.
Weather.....................Mostly sunny until 4 PM, then mostly
cloudy. Showers and a chance of
thunderstorms.
High Temperature............In the upper 80s.
Max Heat Index..............Up to 100.
Winds.......................Northwest winds around 5 mph, becoming
northeast in the afternoon.
Tides...
Miami Harbor Entrance....Low at 07:18 AM EDT.
High at 02:00 PM EDT.
Sunrise.....................7:20 AM.
Sunset......................6:52 PM.
&&
Rip Current Risk Category
* Low Risk - The risk for rip currents is low, however,
life-threatening rip currents often occur in the vicinity of groins,
jetties, reefs, and piers.
* Moderate Risk - Life-threatening rip currents are possible in the
surf zone.
* High Risk - Life-threatening rip currents are likely in the surf
zone.
** For thunderstorm, waterspout, and UV definitions see:
https://www.weather.gov/beach/mflSatellite and radar
Archived frames show what the instruments captured at their labeled times. Radar echoes can include non-rain returns. No movement or future arrival is inferred automatically from these frames.
Southeast GeoColor satellite
GeoColor shows the Southeast, including Florida. The timestamped sequence below preserves cloud detail without automatically interpreting cloud cover at street level.
Earlier timestamped frames
Detailed Miami radar — official KAMX fallback
Colored reflectivity echoes are concentrated northeast of Miami, east of Miami, southwest of Miami relative to Miami in the latest frame. These are echo locations, not confirmation of rain at the surface.
Earlier timestamped frames
Regional South Florida radar
Colored reflectivity echoes are concentrated southwest of Miami, west of Miami, east of Miami relative to Miami in the latest frame. These are echo locations, not confirmation of rain at the surface.
Earlier timestamped frames
Tropical outlook
The Atlantic outlook describes development potential, not a forecast of impacts in Miami. No local hurricane impact is inferred here.
Read official source text
000 ABNT20 KNHC 160516 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Evans/Reinhart
Miami forecast discussion
Read official source text
000 FXUS62 KMFL 160534 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 134 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 - Scattered showers and storms today will focus mainly across interior and Southwest Florida today. Isolated to scattered activity possible for Southeast Florida mainly in the morning hours. - The evolution of a frontal boundary will dictate our local weather this upcoming weekend. Confidence continues to increase for a forecast of windy and wet conditions for South Florida. - Strong winds with the incoming frontal boundary is expected to lead to increasingly hazardous marine conditions, with elevated seas and potential for Gale force winds later this weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 A synoptic scale trough amplifying across the the Great Lakes, Central US and extending into the deep south will continue to advect eastwards today and into this weekend, which is expected to drag a cold front southwards over the weekend as well. As this trough advects eastward, the mid-level high pressure ridge will shift offshore into the western Atlantic and low-level to mid- level flow will shift southerly/southeasterly today. This will usher in deeper tropical moisture (PWATs of 2+ inches for most of the area) and provide ample moisture for the production of diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The prevailing southerly to southeasterly low level flow pattern will support the most widespread showers and thunderstorms occurring over inland portions of South Florida today. Current QPF projections are for no more than 0.5-1.0" of rain today across inland and SW Florida today along with 90th percentile QPF of 1-2". Therefore, outside of any localized urban flooding due to poor drainage, excessive rainfall is not a high concern for today. As the cold front rushes further southwards on Sunday, forcing for ascent will be increased across the entire region and deep moisture will be pooled over the area as well. Thus, widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to form on Saturday. Depending on rain rates and storm training, flooding due to excessive rainfall is much more possible for Saturday. By this time, low level will shift southwesterly and steer the strongest convection towards the east coast metro areas. 90th percentile QPF for Saturday is much higher at 3-6", mainly across SE Florida. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) currently has a Marginal Risk issued for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, which corresponds to at least a 5% chance for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance. This has potential to be upgraded if guidance hints at further impacts. A lot of the rain that will be observed on Saturday could become more stratiform and create a lesser flood risk with lighter rain rates if the atmosphere gets worked over quickly, but that would likely be a short notice change given that the trough and attendant cold front will provide plenty of continuous forcing and vorticity maxima that will take advantage of the moist and unstable environment. High temperatures today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s once again, and then are expected to fall to the low to mid 80s for most areas on Saturday due to the cold front approaching and a more rainy day expected. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Once the frontal boundary discussed in the short term clears through the area on Sunday and into early next week, rain chances will lower back below 40-50% for most of the region as drier air arrives. Strong surface high pressure will re-develop in the wake of the trough starting to advect offshore, creating a stout pressure gradient that could last several days into next week. Winds are first expected to increase on Sunday and last into the early to middle portion of next week, with several days of wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range possible. Additionally, with winds expected to remain northeasterly during this time frame and stronger winds over the local waters, frictional convergence along the coast is likely to be the main driver in rain shower or storm development for next week. Uncertainty in remains in what potential rainfall could amount to in this type of setup, but it is worth noting that we have seen these setups over-perform before. Therefore, we will continue to monitor trends closely. High temperatures in the long term will fall to the low to mid 80s each day in the wake of the front late this weekend. Overnight lows will range from the mid to upper 60s near the lake region to the low to mid 70s elsewhere. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Some coastal SHRA activity is expected to linger the rest of tonight and into the morning, before shifting away from the east coast terminals and opening up VFR conditions for the afternoon and evening. KAPF will have highest chances for impacts due to SHRA/TS. Winds today will shift to the SE around 10kts, with KAPF seeing a wind shift to the SW after 18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026 Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are expected across the local waters today. Winds will then shift to the north/north-northeast and become strong over the weekend as frontal boundary approaches from the north, which will start to bring increasingly hazardous conditions to the waters. This will also coincide with some northeasterly swell arriving. Seas to end the week will be generally in the 2-3 feet range before rising to 7-10+ feet over the weekend when the front pushes through, and wind gusts are expected to approach Gale force at some point. Thus, marine headlines are expected to be issued in the next day or so. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible today, which can result in locally hazardous winds and elevated seas. More widespread showers and storms are expected on Saturday and perhaps lingering into Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 78 88 75 / 30 30 90 70 West Kendall 90 77 87 75 / 30 30 90 70 Opa-Locka 90 77 88 75 / 30 30 90 70 Homestead 90 77 88 75 / 30 30 80 70 Fort Lauderdale 89 77 87 75 / 40 30 90 80 N Ft Lauderdale 89 77 87 75 / 40 30 90 80 Pembroke Pines 90 77 88 74 / 40 30 90 80 West Palm Beach 89 76 86 74 / 60 40 90 80 Boca Raton 88 77 86 74 / 50 30 90 80 Naples 89 75 84 70 / 40 40 80 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman
Sources and freshness
Supplementary failures do not replace missing data with reassuring conclusions. All source times below are Eastern; source metadata and original downloads are archived with this report.
Alerts · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT.
Beach · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 3:21 AM EDT.
Coastal Alerts · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT.
Discussion · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 1:34 AM EDT.
Forecast · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 3:46 AM EDT.
Hourly · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 3:46 AM EDT.
Local Radar · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 5:41 AM EDT.
Marine · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 3:51 AM EDT.
Mcnoldy · unavailable
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. URLError: transport or certificate failure
Nhc · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 1:16 AM EDT.
Observation · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 5:20 AM EDT.
Regional Radar · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 5:40 AM EDT.
Satellite · available
Source. Retrieved Oct 16, 2026 · 5:42 AM EDT. Issued Oct 16, 2026 · 5:36 AM EDT.
Tropical Tidbits · not-used
Source. Retrieved not retrieved. No current tropical context requiring this supplementary source, or the NHC input is unavailable.